Published on 29th April 2016 by Becky Mosley

It is the hottest political debate in decades, as millions up and down the land are discussing whether or not it will be beneficial for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union. Not missing a beat, bookmakers around the country have jumped aboard the runaway ‘Brexit’ train, with markets for such exploding in recent weeks. In fact, over the last 7 days the figure for bets place hit near enough £4 million, doubling the amount wagered in the weeks prior.

‘Remain’ in Favourite Position

Looking at what the betting public has to say, ‘Remain’ has slipped into a heavy favourite position with odds being listed as low as 5/2. This 5/2 figure correlates to 71% chance of Britain remaining in the EU when the June vote reaches its conclusion. ‘Leave’ has subsequently been pushed out to a long-shot 12/5 position, representing just a 29% chance of the UK remaining a EU member state. Money has been moving thick and fast within the market, with 69% of all wagers coming in on ‘Remain’, with one punter set to win a massive £200,000 should that prove to be the case.

Surge In Betting

Speaking on the sudden surge of betting activity and what it says about the upcoming referendum, Naomi Totten (Betfair Spokesperson) said, “Remain was already a strong favourite before Barack Obama’s visit, implying a 66% chance to win, but his comments sparked another wave of trading over the weekend with Remain backed as low as 1/3, which implies a 75% chance. The level of interest is unprecedented; it’s seen six-times more trading than the Scottish referendum at a similar point, and we’re seeing a steady stream of big punters requesting six-figure trades from our brokerage team”.By all accounts if wagering continues at such levels it will become Betfair’s biggest ever political market from a bet volume standpoint.